Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 81%
Likely scores: 2–1 11% · 3–1 10% · 2–0 8%
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona81%77%+4
OursMarket
Draw11%13%−2
OursMarket
Aston Villa8%9%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 23% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 31 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)6-1
- Oct 25 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Oct 20 · at PSG (A)2-4
- Oct 17 · at Real Betis (A)5-2
- Oct 13 · at Galatasaray (A)4-1
Aston Villa
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 31 · v Fulham (H)1-1
- Oct 28 · at Bournemouth (A)0-3
- Oct 24 · v Manchester City (H)2-1
- Oct 21 · v Viking FK (H)3-1
- Oct 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Barcelona | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.