La Liga (Spain) · Thu, Aug 27 · 19:00 · Barcelona vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 76%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona76%72%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
Athletic Club9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 66% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 24% | 28% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 86% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona
WinLossWinLossWin
- Aug 23 · at Elche (A)5-0
- May 23 · at Valencia (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Real Betis (H)3-1
- May 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Real Madrid (H)2-0
Athletic Club
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 24 · v Novorizontino (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Sevilla (H)1-3
- Aug 20 · v CRB (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at América Mineiro (A)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Criciúma (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Barcelona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.