Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 9 · 16:45 · Barcelona vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 58%
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona58%88%−29
OursMarket
Draw21%8%+13
OursMarket
Feyenoord21%4%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 80% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 50% | +19 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 96% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 12% | +29 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 92% | −13 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 95% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Valencia (A)5-0
- Aug 31 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)5-2
- Aug 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Elche (A)5-0
- May 23 · at Valencia (A)1-3
Feyenoord
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 5 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at SC Cambuur (A)5-2
- Aug 16 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Aug 9 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Barcelona | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.