La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · Barcelona vs Getafe
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 93%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 93% for the home win. The market says 90%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona93%90%+2
OursMarket
Draw4%5%−1
OursMarket
Getafe3%4%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 7% | 10% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 97% | 95% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · v Racing de Santander (H)7-2
- Sep 13 · at Levante UD (A)4-2
- Sep 9 · v Feyenoord (H)5-1
- Sep 6 · at Valencia (A)5-0
Getafe
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Málaga (H)1-0
- Sep 17 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Celta Vigo (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Barcelona | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 4.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.