UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 23 · 19:00 · Barcelona vs Paris FC
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 90%
We make it 30% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 26%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona90%87%+3
OursMarket
Draw7%10%−3
OursMarket
Paris FC3%3%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 74% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 20% | 23% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 97% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 10% | 13% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 93% | 90% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 96% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.