La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Sep 16 · 19:30 · Barcelona vs Racing de Santander
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 93%
A tight one: we make it 93% for the home win. The market says 91%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona93%91%+2
OursMarket
Draw4%5%−2
OursMarket
Racing de Santander3%3%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% | 84% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 97% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 7% | 9% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 96% | 95% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 96% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Levante UD (A)4-2
- Sep 9 · v Feyenoord (H)5-1
- Sep 6 · at Valencia (A)5-0
- Aug 31 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)5-2
- Aug 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
Racing de Santander
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Elche (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Barcelona | Racing de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 3-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.