La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Aug 31 · 19:30 · Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 70%
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona70%81%−11
OursMarket
Draw18%12%+6
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano12%7%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 71% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 47% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 93% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 19% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 88% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 92% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Elche (A)5-0
- May 23 · at Valencia (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Real Betis (H)3-1
- May 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
Rayo Vallecano
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Aug 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 27 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- May 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.