La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 25 · 20:00 · Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona64%61%+3
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
Real Madrid21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Real Betis (A)5-2
- Oct 13 · at Galatasaray (A)4-1
- Oct 10 · v Getafe (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · v Racing de Santander (H)7-2
Real Madrid
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Sevilla (H)4-1
- Oct 14 · at Roma (A)4-3
- Oct 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Atletico Madrid (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Elche (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Barcelona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 10-0-0 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.