Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Apr 18 · 13:00 · Bari 1908 vs Venezia
Likeliest: Venezia win · 41%
A 33% home win. The market says 15%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bari 190833%15%+18
OursMarket
Draw26%21%+5
OursMarket
Venezia41%64%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 60% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 36% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 85% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 19% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bari 1908
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 11 · at Monza (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Modena (H)3-1
- Mar 22 · v Carrarese (H)0-3
- Mar 18 · at Frosinone (A)1-2
- Mar 14 · v Reggiana (H)4-1
Venezia
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Apr 11 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Juve Stabia (H)3-1
- Mar 21 · at Monza (A)1-1
- Mar 17 · v Calcio Padova (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Sampdoria (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bari 1908 | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.