League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Barnet vs Swindon Town
Likeliest: Barnet win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barnet58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Swindon Town19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barnet
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Bristol Rovers (A)3-1
- Oct 6 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Fleetwood Town (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Accrington Stanley (H)2-1
Swindon Town
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Walsall (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Rochdale (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Accrington Stanley (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newport County (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Barnet | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.