League One (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:30 · Barnsley vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barnsley26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Leicester City49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barnsley
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 15 · at Peterborough United (A)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Stevenage (H)1-5
- Sep 2 · v Blackpool (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-1
Leicester City
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Stockport County (A)4-3
- Sep 5 · v Oxford United (H)0-4
- Sep 1 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Barnsley | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.