Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 18:00 · Barracas Central Reserve vs Atlético Tucumán Reserve
Likeliest: Atlético Tucumán Reserve win · 43%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barracas Central Reserve26%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Atlético Tucumán Reserve43%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barracas Central Reserve
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 8 · at Godoy Cruz Reserve (A)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 24 · at CD Riestra Reserve (A)0-3
- Sep 17 · v Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · at Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (A)1-2
Atlético Tucumán Reserve
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 8 · v Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 29 · at Banfield Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Rosario Central Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · at Tigre Reserve (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Barracas Central Reserve | Atlético Tucumán Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.