Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Mon, Oct 26 · 00:30 · Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Likeliest: Barracas Central win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barracas Central59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 34% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barracas Central
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · at Sarmiento (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Huracán (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)3-2
- Sep 21 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · at Banfield (A)1-1
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Aldosivi (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at River Plate (A)0-1
- Oct 5 · v Racing Club (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Belgrano (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Barracas Central | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.