National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Barrow AFC vs Forest Green Rovers
Likeliest: Barrow AFC win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barrow AFC43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Forest Green Rovers31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barrow AFC
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Gloucester City (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Tamworth (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Wealdstone (H)2-1
- Sep 29 · v Scunthorpe United (H)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Southend United (A)4-2
Forest Green Rovers
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Chesham United (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Hartlepool United (H)2-4
- Sep 29 · v Wealdstone (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Sutton United (A)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Boston United (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Barrow AFC | Forest Green Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.