National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Barrow AFC vs Wealdstone
Likeliest: Barrow AFC win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barrow AFC48%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Wealdstone26%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barrow AFC
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Sep 29 · v Scunthorpe United (H)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Southend United (A)4-2
- Sep 19 · v Aldershot Town (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Solihull Moors (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Worthing FC (A)2-2
Wealdstone
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 29 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Gateshead (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Tamworth (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v FC Halifax Town (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Boston United (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Barrow AFC | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.