Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · Başakşehir FK vs Gaziantep FK
Likeliest: Başakşehir FK win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Başakşehir FK56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Gaziantep FK20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Başakşehir FK
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Konyaspor (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Gençlerbirliği (H)4-0
- Sep 13 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v Galatasaray (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · v Kasımpaşa (H)1-1
Gaziantep FK
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Çorum FK (H)0-3
- Sep 19 · at Kocaelispor (A)0-2
- Sep 14 · v Fenerbahçe (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at Göztepe (A)4-2
- Aug 29 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Başakşehir FK | Gaziantep FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.