Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:00 · Başakşehir FK vs Gençlerbirliği
Likeliest: Başakşehir FK win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Başakşehir FK65%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
Gençlerbirliği14%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Başakşehir FK
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 13 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v Galatasaray (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · v Kasımpaşa (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Trabzonspor (A)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Kocaelispor (H)2-0
Gençlerbirliği
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 13 · v Kasımpaşa (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Trabzonspor (A)0-5
- Aug 28 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Göztepe (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v Fenerbahçe (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Başakşehir FK | Gençlerbirliği |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.