Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:30 · Basel vs FC Lugano
Likeliest: FC Lugano win · 39%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Basel35%35%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
FC Lugano39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 61% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 63% | −14 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 48% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Basel
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 3 · v FC Sion (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Young Boys (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · at FC Zürich (A)2-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Thun (H)4-2
- Aug 1 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)0-1
FC Lugano
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 3 · v Servette FC (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Sion (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-1
- Aug 20 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-1
- Aug 13 · at NSÍ Runavík (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Basel | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.