Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Thu, Sep 3 · 18:30 · Basel vs FC Sion
Likeliest: FC Sion win · 40%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Basel35%38%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
FC Sion40%37%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 63% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 65% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 51% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Basel
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at Young Boys (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · at FC Zürich (A)2-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Thun (H)4-2
- Aug 1 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)0-1
- Jul 25 · at Servette FC (A)1-0
FC Sion
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v FC Lugano (H)1-2
- Aug 27 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-5
- Aug 20 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-4
- Aug 13 · v FC Noah (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Vaduz (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Basel | FC Sion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.