Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 · Basel vs Grasshopper Club Zürich
Likeliest: Basel win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Basel58%58%0
OursMarket
Draw21%21%+1
OursMarket
Grasshopper Club Zürich21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 70% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Basel
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 16 · at Stade Nyonnais (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · at FC Vaduz (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at FC Luzern (A)4-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Lugano (H)1-3
Grasshopper Club Zürich
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at FC Grenchen 15 (A)8-0
- Oct 11 · v Young Boys (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Luzern (A)1-5
- Sep 15 · v FC Sion (H)2-5
- Sep 12 · at FC Thun (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Basel | Grasshopper Club Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.