1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 25 · 10:30 · Batman Petrolspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Likeliest: Esenler Erokspor win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Batman Petrolspor31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Esenler Erokspor41%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Batman Petrolspor
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Kayserispor (A)2-2
- Oct 14 · v İstanbulspor (H)4-2
- Oct 10 · at Iğdır FK (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Bursaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Bodrum FK (A)0-4
Esenler Erokspor
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 19 · v Mardin 1969 Spor (H)4-2
- Oct 15 · at Manisa FK (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at İstanbulspor (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Fatih Karagümrük (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Bursaspor (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Batman Petrolspor | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.