NWSL (USA) · Sun, Sep 27 · 21:00 · Bay FC vs Orlando Pride
Likeliest: Bay FC win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bay FC39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Orlando Pride34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bay FC
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 20 · v Racing Louisville (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · at Denver Summit FC (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Kansas City Current (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Washington Spirit (A)0-1
Orlando Pride
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Portland Thorns FC (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Kansas City Current (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Houston Dash (H)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Utah Royals FC (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Washington Spirit (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bay FC | Orlando Pride |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-4 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.