NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:00 · Bay FC vs Portland Thorns FC
Likeliest: Portland Thorns FC win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bay FC34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Portland Thorns FC41%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bay FC
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Kansas City Current (A)1-5
- Sep 27 · v Orlando Pride (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Racing Louisville (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · at Denver Summit FC (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-2
Portland Thorns FC
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)2-4
- Sep 27 · v Houston Dash (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Orlando Pride (A)4-1
- Sep 13 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Washington Spirit (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bay FC | Portland Thorns FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-5 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.