Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 13:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 70%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen70%66%+4
OursMarket
Draw16%19%−3
OursMarket
1. FC Union Berlin14%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 68% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)4-0
- May 16 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
- May 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-3
- May 2 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
1. FC Union Berlin
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 29 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-3
- Aug 23 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)4-2
- May 16 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
- May 10 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- May 2 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.