Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 29 · 17:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 52%
We make it 80% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen52%37%+15
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund27%37%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% | +20 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 63% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 63% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 50% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 25 · at Manchester City (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-1
- Nov 8 · v Heidenheim (H)6-0
- Nov 5 · at Benfica (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-3
Borussia Dortmund
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Nov 25 · v Villarreal (H)4-0
- Nov 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Nov 8 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Nov 5 · at Manchester City (A)1-4
- Oct 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record