Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 18 · 13:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 67%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen67%67%−1
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
FC Augsburg15%14%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 66% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 86% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 33% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 83% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 11 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)6-3
- Mar 21 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
- Mar 17 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-1
FC Augsburg
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 10 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-2
- Apr 4 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-5
- Mar 14 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·FC Augsburg form·Head-to-head record