Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 14 · 14:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 42%
A 35% home win. The market says 19%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen35%19%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
FC Bayern München42%60%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 40% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 81% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 25% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Mar 11 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-3
- Mar 4 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-1
- Feb 24 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)0-0
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Mar 10 · at Atalanta (A)6-1
- Mar 6 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)4-1
- Feb 28 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)3-2
- Feb 21 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-2
- Feb 14 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 9-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·FC Bayern München form·Head-to-head record