DFB Pokal (Germany) · Wed, Apr 22 · 18:45 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 42%
A 36% home win. The market says 19%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen36%19%+17
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
FC Bayern München42%61%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 72% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 67% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 39% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 81% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 24% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 18 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)6-3
- Mar 21 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
- Mar 17 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 19 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)4-2
- Apr 15 · v Real Madrid (H)4-3
- Apr 11 · at St. Pauli (A)5-0
- Apr 7 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
- Apr 4 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.