Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 13 · 17:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Köln
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 61%
We make it 73% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 62%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen61%60%+1
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−3
OursMarket
FC Köln21%19%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 62% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 76% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Dec 10 · v Newcastle United (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Nov 25 · at Manchester City (A)2-0
FC Köln
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Dec 6 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-4
- Nov 8 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.