Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 28 · 14:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 52%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen52%56%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0525%21%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Feb 24 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)0-0
- Feb 21 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-1
- Feb 18 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)2-0
- Feb 14 · v St. Pauli (H)4-0
- Feb 7 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-1
FSV Mainz 05
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Feb 20 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-1
- Jan 24 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·FSV Mainz 05 form·Head-to-head record