Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 64%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 27%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen64%74%−11
OursMarket
Draw19%15%+4
OursMarket
Hamburger SV17%11%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 73% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 89% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 26% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 85% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 88% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossLossWinWinLoss
- May 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-3
- May 2 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- Apr 25 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Apr 22 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-2
- Apr 18 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-2
Hamburger SV
LossLossLossWinWin
- May 10 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Apr 12 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Hamburger SV form·Head-to-head record