Europa League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 16 · 19:00 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs NK Celje
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 84%
A tight one: we make it 84% for the home win. The market says 82%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen84%82%+2
OursMarket
Draw10%12%−2
OursMarket
NK Celje6%6%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 94% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 16% | 18% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 93% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)4-0
- May 16 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
NK Celje
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at NK Bravo (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | NK Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.