Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen49%48%0
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
RB Leipzig29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 16 · v NK Celje (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)4-0
RB Leipzig
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)5-0
- Sep 10 · at Como (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Eintracht Trier (A)6-0
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·RB Leipzig form·Head-to-head record