Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
SC Freiburg21%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 15 · at Lech Poznań (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v RB Leipzig (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v NK Celje (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
SC Freiburg
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 15 · v FK Jablonec (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·SC Freiburg form·Head-to-head record