DFB Pokal (Germany) · Tue, Feb 3 · 19:45 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 59%
A 19% away win. The market says 15%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen59%64%−5
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
St. Pauli19%15%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 85% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 36% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 81% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossLossWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Jan 28 · v Villarreal (H)3-0
- Jan 24 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
- Jan 20 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-1
St. Pauli
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-1
- Jan 23 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-0
- Jan 17 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Jan 14 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.