Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 14 · 14:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 53%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen53%64%−10
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+1
OursMarket
St. Pauli23%14%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 86% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 36% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 82% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Feb 7 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-1
- Feb 3 · v St. Pauli (H)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Jan 28 · v Villarreal (H)3-0
- Jan 24 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
St. Pauli
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Feb 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Feb 3 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-1
- Jan 23 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.