Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 10 · 17:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen44%45%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart33%30%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 60% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Dec 20 · at RB Leipzig (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · v FC Köln (H)2-0
- Dec 10 · v Newcastle United (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
VfB Stuttgart
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Dec 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)0-0
- Dec 14 · at Werder Bremen (A)4-0
- Dec 11 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
- Dec 3 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·VfB Stuttgart form·Head-to-head record