Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 4 · 13:30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 60%
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bayer 04 Leverkusen60%66%−6
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg21%15%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 85% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 34% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 82% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Mar 21 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
- Mar 17 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-3
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Mar 21 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Feb 21 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·VfL Wolfsburg form·Head-to-head record