AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 12:15 · Beijing Guoan vs Pohang Steelers
Likeliest: Beijing Guoan win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beijing Guoan47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Pohang Steelers28%27%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beijing Guoan
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · at Shanghai Port (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)3-3
- Aug 18 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)3-0
- Aug 15 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)4-2
Pohang Steelers
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Gangwon FC (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Jeju SK (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Beijing Guoan | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.