Super League (China) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:00 · Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao West Coast
Likeliest: Beijing Guoan win · 69%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beijing Guoan69%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Qingdao West Coast13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beijing Guoan
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 13 · at Buriram United (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)3-0
- Sep 15 · v Pohang Steelers (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Shanghai Port (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-1
Qingdao West Coast
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)0-4
- Sep 5 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Shandong Taishan (H)2-0
- Aug 14 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Beijing Guoan | Qingdao West Coast |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.