Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:30 · Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Haifa
Likeliest: Beitar Jerusalem win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beitar Jerusalem58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−1
OursMarket
Hapoel Haifa21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beitar Jerusalem
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 15 · v Maccabi Petach Tikva (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Bnei Sakhnin (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · v Maccabi Netanya (H)1-4
- Aug 13 · at Austria Wien (A)2-1
Hapoel Haifa
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 14 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)0-0
- May 18 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Beitar Jerusalem | Hapoel Haifa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-7-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.