Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Aug 29 · 17:30 · Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Netanya
Likeliest: Beitar Jerusalem win · 51%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beitar Jerusalem51%65%−14
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+5
OursMarket
Maccabi Netanya25%16%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 66% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 84% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 35% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 81% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beitar Jerusalem
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 13 · at Austria Wien (A)2-1
- Aug 6 · v Austria Wien (H)1-2
- Jul 30 · v AEK Larnaca (H)2-3
- Jul 23 · at AEK Larnaca (A)0-0
- May 23 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)1-1
Maccabi Netanya
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Aug 24 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)0-0
- May 18 · at Maccabi Bnei Raina (A)4-1
- May 13 · v Hapoel Haifa (H)1-1
- May 10 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)3-4
- May 4 · v Hapoel Jerusalem (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Beitar Jerusalem | Maccabi Netanya |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.