Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:30 · Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Maccabi Tel Aviv win · 44%
Likely score: 0–2
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Beitar Jerusalem32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Maccabi Tel Aviv44%41%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Beitar Jerusalem
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (A)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Hapoel Haifa (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Maccabi Petach Tikva (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Bnei Sakhnin (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)0-3
Maccabi Tel Aviv
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- Sep 7 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)4-1
- Aug 31 · v Maccabi Haifa (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Beitar Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.