UEFA Nations League · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:45 · Belarus vs Finland
Likeliest: Finland win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Belarus27%28%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+4
OursMarket
Finland43%45%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Belarus
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v San Marino (H)4-0
- Sep 29 · at Finland (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Albania (A)0-2
- Jun 9 · v Burkina Faso (H)2-2
- Jun 5 · v Syria (H)4-1
Finland
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Albania (H)2-1
- Sep 29 · v Belarus (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at San Marino (A)7-0
- Jun 5 · at Hungary (A)1-2
- May 31 · at Germany (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Belarus | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-3 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.