UEFA Nations League · Sat, Oct 3 · 16:00 · Belarus vs San Marino
Likeliest: Belarus win · 88%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 88% for the home win. The market says 85%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Belarus88%85%+3
OursMarket
Draw9%11%−2
OursMarket
San Marino4%4%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 12% | 15% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Belarus
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 29 · at Finland (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Albania (A)0-2
- Jun 9 · v Burkina Faso (H)2-2
- Jun 5 · v Syria (H)4-1
- Mar 29 · at Armenia (A)2-1
San Marino
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 29 · v Albania (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · v Finland (H)0-7
- Jun 9 · v Azerbaijan (H)1-2
- Jun 9 · at Azerbaijan (A)1-2
- Jun 5 · v Bangladesh (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Belarus | San Marino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 0-1-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 0-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.