UEFA Nations League · Fri, Oct 2 · 18:45 · Belgium vs Turkey
Likeliest: Belgium win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Belgium66%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
Turkey15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Belgium
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 28 · v France (H)0-1
- Sep 25 · at Italy (A)0-0
- Jul 10 · at Spain (A)1-2
- Jul 7 · at USA (A)4-1
- Jul 1 · v Senegal (H)2-2
Turkey
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 28 · v Italy (H)1-4
- Sep 25 · v France (H)0-0
- Jun 26 · v USA (H)3-2
- Jun 20 · v Paraguay (H)0-1
- Jun 14 · at Australia (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Belgium | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.