Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 21 · 18:00 · Belgrano Reserve vs Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve
Likeliest: Belgrano Reserve win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Belgrano Reserve42%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve32%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Belgrano Reserve
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 15 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)2-1
- Oct 8 · v San Martin Reserve (H)3-2
- Sep 30 · at Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · v Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · v CD Riestra Reserve (H)2-1
Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 14 · v Lanús Reserve (H)4-4
- Oct 6 · at Newell's Old Boys Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 29 · v Defensa y Justicia Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Belgrano Reserve | Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.