Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 8 · 18:00 · Belgrano Reserve vs San Martin Reserve
Likeliest: Belgrano Reserve win · 72%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Belgrano Reserve72%70%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
San Martin Reserve10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 66% | −26 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Belgrano Reserve
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 30 · at Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · v Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · v CD Riestra Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Colón Reserve (A)3-1
- Sep 1 · at Lanús Reserve (A)1-3
San Martin Reserve
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 1 · v Lanús Reserve (H)0-2
- Sep 25 · v Godoy Cruz Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 17 · at Newell's Old Boys Reserve (A)0-4
- Sep 9 · v Defensa y Justicia Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Belgrano Reserve | San Martin Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.