Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Benfica vs Celtic
Likeliest: Benfica win · 79%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Benfica79%75%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−2
OursMarket
Celtic8%9%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Benfica
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Vitória SC (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at FC Porto (A)1-3
- Sep 16 · at AC Milan (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Gil Vicente (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · at Moreirense (A)4-0
Celtic
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Motherwell (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Rangers (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-3
- Sep 9 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · at St. Mirren (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Benfica | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.