Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Sep 13 · 17:00 · Benfica vs Gil Vicente
Likeliest: Benfica win · 86%
A tight one: we make it 86% for the home win. The market says 83%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Benfica86%83%+3
OursMarket
Draw9%12%−3
OursMarket
Gil Vicente5%5%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 95% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 14% | 17% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 88% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 95% | 94% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Benfica
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 9 · at Moreirense (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Marítimo (A)3-0
- Aug 31 · v Estoril Praia (H)2-1
- Aug 27 · at AGF (A)3-1
- Aug 20 · v AGF (H)3-1
Gil Vicente
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · v Académico Viseu FC (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Famalicão (A)0-0
- Aug 24 · v Casa Pia (H)2-0
- Aug 9 · v Rio Ave (H)1-0
- May 16 · at Sporting CP (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Benfica | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.